EUR/USD The EURUSD daily Forex chart pulled back in 3 legs over the past week. This is a micro wedge. A reversal up from here would be a higher low major trend reversal and a head and shoulders bottom. The EUR/USD daily Forex chart has been forming lower highs and lows since September 24. It is therefore in a bear channel. If today closes near its high, it would be a buy signal bar for tomorrow. The 5 day selloff would then be a micro wedge bull flag after the 2 week rally. Furthermore, a rally from here would be a higher low major trend reversal. In addition, that would create a head and shoulders bottom. The weekly chart is at support and has a yearlong wedge bull flag. Therefore, the context is good for the 2 month bear trend to end around the current level. Also, the daily chart is at the bottom of a 6 month trading range. Most trading range breakouts fail. Consequently, the odds favor a reversal up for several weeks, whether or not there is a small break below the November 12 low first. The bears want to keep making lower highs and lows. That would continue the 2 month bear trend channel. In addition, the current selloff is from a double top bear flag with the July and September highs. There is therefore a 40% chance of a 500 pip measured move down to 1.08 over the next few months. But, that means there is a 60% chance of a reversal up before then.
28.11.2018 Wednesday Morning Analysis